Clay Buchholz and peripherals
June 11th, 2011 by czar

Buchholz’s 2011 K/BB, while not otherworldly, (1.96 over 77.2 IP) is the highest for any season since his 22 IP in 2007. It has been 3.80 since that whole rain-delayed ordeal against the Twins at the beginning of May. To put that into perspective, he has only had one month in his entire career with a K/BB > 2.50 (2.91 in Sept 2009). His K/9 (7.8) has been a full strikeout and a half better than his 09-10 average. Since the Fangraphs “Buchholz, Don’t Buy Low,” piece (5/4), his SwStr% is a hair below 10% (which lines up nicely with boosted K/9). During this same stretch, his xFIP is south of 3.40 and his FIP is near 3, both almost a full run below his career averages.

Even including that clunker against Oakland, he is in the midst of the best 7-8 game run (peripherally) of his career. This is interesting, because I’d argue it doesn’t FEEL that way; especially when you consider a couple of the stretches he had last year. I think the key difference has to do with the fact that he’s been succeeding greatly (lately) without the aid of huge BABIP/xBABIP splits or criminally low HR/FB rates this time around. Ideally, this should project a lot more confidence in Buchholz going forward as well as help continue to dampen the “REGRESSION!!!111″ crowd that was so vocal during his first few starts of 2011.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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