On acquiring Chad Qualls
June 15th, 2010 by czar

Chad Qualls sucks.  We shouldn’t trade for him.

While it’s extremely concerning to see Qualls’ LD% go up and up and up for the last 4 years, he’s not pitching as bad as his counting stats indicate. Velocity is still there and 51.4% LOB and .474 BABIP (vs. .361 xBABIP — concerning) imply the 8+ ERA should come down somewhat.

That’s not to say I want him, but I’d consider him if he’s someone you could get for “essentially nothing.” The problem is it honestly wouldn’t make sense for AZ to trade him for that because while he’s bad, he’s not “essentially nothing” bad so it’d be a losing proposition from their view.

No really, Chad Qualls is garbage and is of no use to the Sox.

Chad Qualls actually has a lower xFIP than Heilman and a comparable FIP. Heilman’s sub-3.00 ERA is buoyed by an 85% strand rate. In fact, Heilman actually has a worse LD% than Qualls and allows double the fly balls. While fly balls have a higher BABIP than ground balls, they also result in proportionally larger increases in (simply put, more OFH are 2B, 3B, and HR than GBH). Qualls’ HR/FB rate is nearly twice that of Heilman but it’s only a few points above his career norms while Heilman is about 3 pts below his. How much those will normalize really depends on your philosophy regarding how much control a pitcher has over the total number of HR in any given park, but Qualls will probably give up a few less HR going forward and Heilman a few more. Honestly, it’s probably a lateral move assuming everyone’s peripherals stay on the same track.

That’s not to say Qualls shouldn’t be demoted or even that anyone in the Arizona bullpen has actually been good (only 2 relievers have a true ERA under 6, Qualls actually has the lowest xFIP!), but if you can buy low on the FA-to-be Qualls and get him for a song I’d venture a guess that he’d perform better than the rotating Atchinson/Nelson/Bonser triumvirate for the balance of 2010.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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