Buchholz, June 4th start @ BAL
June 5th, 2010 by czar

Ironically, the contact he induced last night would have pegged him at a .224 xBABIP (LD = .720, GB = .231, FB = .171, BU = .179, PU = .019 — 2 LD, 14 GB, 8 FB, 1 BU, 3 PU) and his actual BABIP was .179 (5 hits on 28 BIP). So he was lucky, but his ball in play breakdown indicated that he wasn’t THAT lucky in the xBABIP vs. BABIP sense (I say this because you can argue that pitch X should have been a LD and not a FB, ergo lucky; but I don’t do this because it starts to erode at the control the pitcher has over what the batters do with his pitches). He induced a lot of “low batting average” play types and it showed even with the lack in K last night.

I know I said it a ton last year in the Buchholz and game threads, but the precipitous drop in LD% from when he entered the league until now bodes extremely well for at least continued success if not gains at the major league level.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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