More bunting fun!
May 26th, 2010 by czar

Indians/White Sox 9th inning. White Sox up 5-1, Jenks pitching.

Double
Walk
Single
Walk (5-2)
Single (5-4)
Sac bunt!
Intentional walk of Choo to reload the bases.
K
Fly out

White Sox hold on and win 5-4.

Scoring expectancy (>= one run) from 63.7% to 68.9% to 67.9% (xx- with 0 outs to -xx with 1 out to xxx with 1 out) with the bunt. Total RE went from 1.504 to 1.410 to 1.568.

I’ll still agree that Terry Francona doesn’t know how to properly employ a bunt. And 90% of all sac bunts suck. This one wasn’t one of them.

But the run expectancy goes down as soon as Choo is walked (because it sets up the DP), which is was pretty obvious they would do if the bunt was successful. Even if Crowe just makes an out Choo would get to bat with one out and 2 on and he is their best hitter.

No, scoring expectancy goes down, run expectancy goes up (from -xx to xxx, 1 out). However, both were higher than pre-bunt even post-walk.

And while he’ll probably regress somewhat, Austin Kearns (the one up with xxx, 1 out) is only OPSing a little below Choo is 2010.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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