Kelly or Buchholz?
November 25th, 2009 by czar

If the Sox only had to give up one of Casey Kelly or Clay Buchholz for Roy Halladay, who would you like to see them move?

You will be hard-pressed to find anyone (who can make a rational argument beyond “Buchholz has the mental makeup of a cockroach”) that wouldn’t give up Kelly v. Buchholz if both players were valued exactly as equals by another team.

Regardless of how high Kelly’s ceiling might theoretically be; the fact that Buchholz has had success at the big-league level makes him the better bet for future production by far if you take into account the statistical flame-out probability of highly-touted low minors prospects.

The problem is most GM’s are too smart to value extremely young talent so highly relative to major or near-major league ready talent. Otherwise everyone could just keep drafting toolsy high schoolers; have them put big numbers in rookie ball/SSA/etc. and then move them for big-time, big-league pieces on a regular basis without ever having to develop an effective upper minor league system. As much as we (and the Sox FO) talk up Kelly; I find it hard to believe the “covet factor” other GMs currently hold for him is equal or greater than his in-system hype.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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