Why the bailing on Buchholz?
October 29th, 2009 by czar

A Halladay trade ultimately comes down to what do the Toronto baseball people think of Buchholz. If you have someone making the decision who loves Clay, I think there is a great chance to get a deal done. But Clay has been very up and down so far in his career, and there certainly may be baseball people out there who view him as a back of a rotation guy (or at the minimum someone who will never be consistent). If you run into a GM who is in that book, then it becomes really hard to find a combination of players that makes it work.

Clay has been “down” for what, like 100 innings (2008 and his first 8 starts of 2009) out of 630 in his professional career?

I think you have to think hard about packaging Buchholz (a guy who just put up a 112 ERA+) who is under your control for the next four years (age 25-28 seasons; the statistical peak among average SP) at what a year of Halladay costs and extra players (Lowrie, Bowden, Reddick, etc.). In return, you get a single guaranteed season thrown by 33 year-old Roy Halladay along with the “right” to get first dibs at offering him a 6 year, 100+ million contract which takes him (declining) through his age 39 season. You can certainly make an argument that Halladay helps the “win it now” crowd next year, but there’s a very real shot that Buchholz is significantly better value starting in 2011, maybe even as soon as next year.

At the very least, Buchholz’s trade value has grown leaps and bounds over what it was at the trade deadline given the fact that he had a 3.49 ERA from August on and made arguably the best start of the short-lived postseason– I think you’re significantly underestimating Buchholz’s A) talent and B) trade value if you think that there are GM’s around baseball that see him as a long-term “back of the rotation starter” at best.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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