Relief pitcher volatility
October 12th, 2009 by czar

It seems (to me) that RP stay in the “elite” bracket for far shorter than their SP counterparts (or players at other positions) meaning that if their value is overvalued by the market (i.e., the RP_risk/RP_value is higher than for other positions of need) you want to move them to maximize return?

I’m not clamoring for moving Papelbon, but you can certainly make an argument that an efficient way to maximize output from the bullpen arms is to drag them through your system until they become expensive; ship them out for other positions/prospects/picks when they get expensive, and start again from within. I actually was making this argument around the ASB too, so it’s not some retrospective knee-jerk after yesterday.

Same reason I really expect Theo to move MDC this offseason. Not because he sucks (which is not a debate for this thread), but because the (savings in contract + players in return) is greater than value he’d provide through remainder of contract when you consider cheaper, alternative, maybe in house options.

Papelbon was absolutely not “very effective” before he changed his mechanics back.

FIP by month:
April 4.45
May 4.30
June 4.18
July 1.55
August 2.72
Sep/Oct 1.23

FIP is notoriously finicky for RP because of the inherently smaller sample size and the fact that their situational usage isn’t as normalized (in a hypothetical sense) as a SP. Breaking it down by month does seem to imply a serious trend, but a few extra BB or an extra HR or two is going to seriously skew these #’s, so my confidence level in the overall “he was really bad, then really good” trend is a bit lower than it would be in the case of say, a Jon Lester.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

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