Buchholz and a sky-high BABIP?
October 4th, 2009 by czar

To me, Buchholz’s stunningly-high BABIP is more an indication that his pitches are getting tattooed rather than him getting unlucky. The six HR seem to suggest that. This isn’t bad luck, he’s pitching like crap.

The Toronto game and today were two different Clay Buchholzs. During the Toronto game he WAS getting hit hard; today he gave up three hard hit balls; the HR to Valbuena, one of the three singles in the 3rd, and then the double to Marte. The other hits were bloops and bleeders.

He was bad today because his control wasn’t there; if he doesn’t walk Gimenez after getting ahead 1-2 and LaPorta on 4 pitches the third inning turns into a rocket and a couple flares and likely changes the complexion of the start.

I also wonder if there is a correlation between the regression the last two starts and the increased use of his slider.

18/70 pitches (25.7%) today
22/79 (27.8%) on 9/29
15/109 (13.7%) on 9/24
12/95 (12.6%) on 9/18
12/96 (12.5%) on 9/13

The usage on the slider Tuesday/today is double that of his previous 3 starts. It might be a chicken or the egg paradox– are Buchholz’s results iffy because he’s really working hard on the slider (maybe something Farrell wanted to get worked in in “meaningless tune-up” games?) or does he go to the slider more frequently as an out pitch because the rest of his stuff has sucked a lot? It’s probably more the latter, but it’s an interesting note given the praise that some people in the know have heaped upon his slider recently.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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