What is with the Adam Dunn creamfests?
December 23rd, 2008 by czar

I’m all about Dunn.  1B is least important position on the field. I think overall when you take into account his offense and defense it is still better than Lowell.  You could always move him to LF when Bay goes, too.

Rough number crunching:

2008 BRAA and FRAA normalized to 162.

Dunn at 1B:
BRAA: 29
FRAA: -5 (Dunn’s career normalized 1B metric since he didn’t play there last year)
RAA: 24

Lowell at 3B:
BRAA: 10
FRAA: 21
RAA: 31

Extrapolated 2008 metrics dictate Lowell was 7 runs better than Dunn if they both played a full season. 2007 statistics show Lowell was 20-25 runs better than Dunn over the full season.

A few things this doesn’t take into account is the league transition, Lowell’s health, and Youkilis moving positions to accommodate Dunn (or staying to accommodate Lowell).

But in no way is Adam Dunn a slam dunk better than Mike Lowell. And as a LF, Dunn is even worse– he’s between 13-18 runs below average defensively per year– that pretty much offsets what offensive gain he would have over almost any reasonable LF/RF in baseball.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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