Sox sign Dustin Pedroia to an extension!
December 5th, 2008 by czar

This is a great deal for the Sox IF and ONLY if DP stays healthy and produces at a reasonable (not necessarily MVP) rate over the next six years. Not saying he won’t, but I think some people are seeing this as a “blinders-on” slam dunk for the duration of the contract. As good as DP was this season, tying up $40 million into a guy who has had 1.75 above-average seasons in the majors always carries an inherent amount of risk (like any FA contract).

But, yeah, I love the deal, too

$7 million really isn’t that much. Even if he gets hurt I say it was a good deal.

$7 million is plenty when you consider the moaning about Lugo’s contract.

I just don’t buy into all the hype that DP took a huge discount to play with the Sox. Yes, people say “Awesome! He could have made $20 mil more on the open market but chose to stick with us!!!111″ but that’s assuming he keeps producing at an MVP level. Far from a slam dunk looking through the annals of history.

The Sox wanted to lock up a young MVP at a premium position at a reasonable rate through his prime years. DP wanted $40 million guaranteed in case he got hurt or started sucking. He’s set for life even if he starts hitting below the Varitek Line next year. It’s win/win. Pedroia didn’t throw all his fortune to the wind to stay with the Red Sox because he’s a “dirt dog.” It’s not the same as if Teixeira took $5 million per year less to play for Baltimore over Anaheim.

Don’t get me wrong, for a team like the Sox, it’s a great deal- no question- since they can be insured against said fluctuations in production (no matter the likelihood them happening or not). However, Pedroia’s probably not sitting at home going “thankfully I took a ton less money to stay with Boston.” I mean, he might be, but he’s also rolling around in a giant piles of bills going “Ahhhhh Theeeeeeeeeooooo’ssss moonneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeey.”

I hope they catch the guy that anally raped your mother while pouring sugar in your gas tank.  Sheesh.

Sorry.

What I meant to say was…

“THANK GOD DP LOvES US SO MUCH HE GAVE UP ALL THAT MONEY (LIKE 20 MILLION!!!!!) TO STAY HERE BECAUSE HES AWESOME AND LOVES US!!1111 TRUE DIRG DOG!!11″

Like I said in every post on the subject; still a fantastic deal for the Sox as long as DP keeps churning away…

Since you’re debating the money, this from Tango.

I saw this dropped on SoSH. I want to see how he factored in potential regression from max production as well as injury. He briefly mentions injury, but doesn’t state his methodology.

These appear to be the inherent assumptions in that calculation.
1.) Dustin Pedroia will continue being at least a 5 WAR player indefinitely. 5 WAR! 5 WAR is excessive.
2.) Dustin Pedroia’s arb figures are based on current market values (which is questionable given the likelihood of ongoing economic issues as well as fluctuations in valuation of a 2B).
3.) This assumes that DP will sign a MONSTER deal after he becomes a free agent (which goes hand in hand with point #1).

He states that on the open market, Pedroia gets a $23 million a year deal. I claim bull. Aside from that, everyone who references what numbers he would make on the free agent market are using a strawman since there is a 0% change that it’s relevant in his bargaining leverage.

I like Pedroia, think he’s a fine ballplayer, but only a complete moron would give him upwards of $22mm a year. That’s the type of cash that Teixeira is probably going to be looking at. Where are they getting that from?


It’s apparently solely based off of flat WAR which takes into account position scarcity (via replacement levels). That’s not how the baseball market works; and it still works off of pure extrapolation of his 2008 season alone (he was nowhere near a 5 WAR player in 2007).

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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