Jacoby Ellsbury sucks… well, not really…
July 20th, 2008 by czar

Jacoby went 0 for 5 today, which leaves him at 2 for 27 over the last six games without a run scored. His K/BB ratio is 30/5 since the beginning of June. His K rate for the season is over 15%, the highest it’s been at any point in his professional career. Now, I expected a fairly sizable dropoff from the end of last season (primarily due to his obscene .388 BABIP) but this is staggering. Of course, his BABIP is currently sitting at .301 (given his speed, a reasonable figure to regress to) and he still is looking awful at the dish.

For comparison’s sake, everyone vilifies Coco Crisp as an awful offensive player and considers Ellsbury the superior option not only because of cost/control (valid) but because of his advantage at the plate…

Ellsbury: .266/.337/.369/.706 — 86 OPS+
Crisp: .255/.303/.403/.706 — 84 OPS+

Ellsbury gives you speed, Crisp gives you defense– but to me– as overall centerfielders this season– it’s a coinflip. They both have sucked. The question becomes– do you still look to deal Crisp when Ortiz returns this season– or even, do you still look to deal Crisp in the offseason?

Should Jacoby be dropped down in the order? Or even given some more time in AA to work on his plate discipline and swing mechanics. I’m beginning to wonder if this is not so much a giant slump (it’s a slump no doubt) but also has a component of “regression to the mean” with it. Ellsbury is just not ready to be a top of the lineup guy yet– I wonder if last season’s “fluke” run is keeping him firmly entrenched at the top of the order…

(Not that having 6-7-8-9 be auto outs is any different from 7-8-9-1.)

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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