The CF saga continues…
February 23rd, 2008 by czar

I just don’t get how it makes sense sending Ellsbury down.  He’s going to be 25 years old this summer.  It’s time.  At their payroll, it would be a shame if the Red Sox had the 30th best player at his position starting (that being Coco).

First off, he’s higher than 30th. Secondly, how big do you think the current talent gap between the two is?

2007 Crisp: .042 WARP/G
2007 Ellsbury: .054 WARP/G

So in theory, going by SSS of 2007, Jacoby is worth maybe one more win than Crisp over a hundred games. Maybe. Assuming Jacoby doesn’t regress from his 33 game sample size (up for debate) and Crisp has a 3 month stretch as terrible as his opening to the season in 2007.

Unless Jacoby blows the Sox away in ST, or some other teams blows us away in a trade offer for Coco, why wouldn’t we send Ellsbury down for a month or two? He gets to hone his skills playing every day in AAA, we would likely gain the rights to him for another year because of his potential super-two status, and we’d get to showcase Crisp for a move–

Considering there are few things Crisp can do to really HURT his trade value, I can’t see the Sox losing all that much (if any) by having Jacoby play 40 games in AAA to open the season.

I think the talent gap is big and getting bigger because Ellsbury has a higher upside.  Maybe no teams are knocking the Sox doors down to trade for him because he’s just not that good.

Statistics to back that up?

What I see, is a Jacoby Ellsbury who is talented, but played way above his MLE’s while up with the big club in a sample size of ~40 games. With Coco, I see someone who (while fairly inept with the bat over the last two years) has shined defensively to the point of pushing him past some of the more offensive CF in all around value.

No one is arguing that Crisp is the long-term better bet– but right now, there is no reason to think the Sox will be far worse off by starting Ellsbury in AAA for a couple months to A) save him a year under the Sox control and B) build (or wait for) a market for Coco.

The only way Coco’s value goes down is if he gets hurt otherwise he is what he is.  A below average hitter for center field, but a tremendous defender.

However, you also hope that he can get hot– put together a good month, and hope maybe an injury or two pop up around baseball– which would gain the Sox some leverage in any negotiations. Market fluctuations would likely be key in any scenario where the Sox hold on to Coco past ST.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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