Johan Santana?
November 25th, 2007 by czar

Does anyone really think the Sox would part with Buchholz/Ellsbury/Lester? The advantage of acquiring Santana now versus next winter is akin to a one-year rental. The Twins are only giving up one year of Santana control. Otherwise teams can wait for him to hit the market next winter and sign him to a similar contract without forfeiting other assets. How does that one year translate into a mega-package like Coco, Lester, Bowden, Masterson, Lowrie? What am I missing?

You’re assuming that he’ll hit the FA market no matter what. I agree, it’s not worth it if he’s merely going to test the waters next offseason– but if the Sox have a window in which they are the only suitors who can put in a bid for him (i.e. a trade before he’s a FA) then it’s worth players.

We can sit here and say “We’ll wait til November,” but everyone knows for damn sure if the Yankees part with Joba and snag Johan, he’ll be in pinstripes for the next 8 years.

Not that I’m vehemently pro-Johan, but if we get any kind of exclusive window, I’d take it (and the extra year we’d have him) in exchange for some talent.

I think Grady Sizemore is a good comp for Jacoby Ellsbury.

Maybe as a high ceiling. Ellsbury is one year younger than Sizemore and well behind his development curve (not to mention a lack of pop and an arm). I think Gammo threw out some comparisons during one of his pieces, but most baesball people wouldn’t make this analogy.

Kenny Lofton is the player that jumps to mind for me. And that’s probably not a great one, but closer in my mind than Sizemore.

Something about Buchholz and Ellsbury to me scream “Untouchable”.  Lester, yes, fine, and see if the Twins will take two lesser “ML-ready guys” plus a B prospect.

I’m curious as to what makes people think Lester is less untouchable than Ellsbury. I personally would move both in the right deal, but I’ve heard an awful lot of people claim we should be pushing to move Jon and not Jacoby, which strikes me as odd especially when Lester showed that he still has considerable upside late into the season, and while Ellsbury performed amazing, but admittedly, likely a bit “over his head” (in relation to development curve and peripherals).

I think this might be a case of Sox fans falling head over heels with a different prospect every three months– this isn’t a knock on Ellsbury by any stretch, but if you tell me you can have either “a lefty throwing in the low-mid 90′s with solid offspeed stuff, and the ceiling of a #2 starter or a CF who projects to be a young Johnny Damon” it’s not as black and white as some people claim by putting Ellsbury on tier I and Lester on tier II.

No pitcher is worth $25M in this market. Zito money ($18M/yr), fine. $25M? That’s a little much, especially if we are trading youth as well.

I don’t understand this sentiment, honestly. People were willing to throw $30 million at an Alex Rodriguez who was four years older than Santana, and was only worth (going by WARP) another win and change over Santana last year, even when A-Rod had an amazing season, and Santana was average. If I’m spending my cheese, I’d much rather do it on a Cy Young caliber pitcher to plug into this rotation that a hitter for the lineup, no matter how dynamic he might be.

Your second point is still a valid one of course. Clearly it’d be prudent to let him hit the market if we were positive that’s what he’d do. The reason the youngsters are included is the exclusive nature of the negotiations– if the Sox give up a Buchholz or Lester or Ellsbury or any combination for him, you get Santana for one year PLUS you might be in the driver’s seat w.r.t. negotiations. That alone is an interesting proposition– a team such as the Sox or the Yanks could wrap up Santana without even giving the other team a shot if they trade for him now. I feel that it’s likely worth more to the Yankees than the Red Sox (and I’m guessing Santana gets traded to and signed by the Yankees for a package of Hughes/Chamberlain and Cabrera/Kennedy +), but I’m also not running the front office.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

(comments are closed).

About The Site

  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

    E-mail: webmaster [at] balloflightning [dot] com


November 2007
« Oct   Dec »





Weather @ Fenway

Vista Themes | Indoor Lighting | Dictionary