Michael Bowden’s value and a dash of Kenny Rogers
July 11th, 2007 by czar

I don’t want to move Ellsbury and/or Buchholz for Dunn– would Bowden do it? 

I can’t imagine Bowden and Hansen nets Dunn in any world, so yeah, I think that we’d definately have to move Buchholz or Ellsbury if we want him. We keep hyping Bowden, but do you think the Reds GM holds our 21 year-old AA-baller with a 5+ ERA in “elite prospect” regard?

People keep forgetting, we can’t just get marquee names without giving up talent in return. Especially since Dunn is technically under contract for TWO years, so he’s theoretically a rental for any acquiring team for the next couple of summers because of the clause in his contract. It’s not like’s Todd Helton, an aging slugger tied up at ridiculous money for the next four years.

I don’t like the idea of acquiring Dunn, but I’m also smart enough to realize he’s a big enough name it’s gonna take something big to get him.

Aren’t you underrating Bowden?

I don’t think I’m underrating Bowden. He was only 83 in the bigs on BA’s list this year. Is he on any other top 50 prospect lists?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he’s not a prospect and worth squat– and if he begins to approach his ceiling, he’ll rise in the rankings, but until he starts blowing guys away in the mid-upper minor league levels, a ceiling is merely a ceiling. People thinking he can pull us a big name should probably think again. My overall point is that he (while being a good pitching prospect) is not a top 15 pitcher that will net us the Adam Dunn’s of the world.  Plenty of other teams will be willing to offer up guys who are more polished and therefore highly thought of in the big league circles for names like Dunn or Willis, etc.

Honestly, I’d lean towards keeping Bowden around anyway– he is not likely to fetch a huge name at this stage in his development, and I’d rather take the chance on him advancing his trade value, or developing the talent to help this team at the big league level in Portland or Pawtucket as opposed to somewhere else.

Kenny Rogers sucks in the postseason.  His career line is 3-3 in 12 games (8 started), 4.15 ERA, 34/23 K/BB ratio, and 41H in 43.1IP.

If you throw out 1996 (his first year in the playoffs, when he pitched for the Yankees) he has a 2.24 ERA in his last 3 postseasons, last 6 series, while averaging almost a K/IP.

I mean, I’d be inclined to throw out the one postseason from 11 years ago rather than say “He chokes in the playoffs.”

I would say he has a poor post-season in ’96 and ’99. In the ’99 NLDS he allowed 4 ER in 4.1IP and in the NLCS he allowed 5 ER in 7.2IP.

His 1999 postseason wasn’t good, but it wasn’t epically bad. Hell, he might have been a catch or a called strike away from only allowing 6 ER in 14 IP. If you want to argue that he has only had one great postseason, he’s had only one real bad postseason as well. I don’t think you can argue he’s a bad postseason pitcher when the majority of his IP come during a postseason where he was fantastic, and said postseason also came far more recently than all of his other appearences.

I don’t know how you can say 4 ER in 4.1IP and 5 ER in 7.2IP isn’t a disaster. I hope that last year was just a fluke for Rogers.

9 ER in 12 IP? It’s bad, but it’s not like he blew up for 11 ER in 3 IP. He gets lucky, works out of jams, and throws 6 scoreless his next time out and he finishes the postseason with a 4.50.

I don’t know, it’s just, if pitcher A is coming off a postseason where he pitched a ton of scoreless innings, and he has had a couple bad years, but they were eight years ago– I’d be inclined to put more stock into recent performance, which happens to be also a larger sample size.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings

2 Comments

Posted By: jim penson on July 13th, 2007at 11:32 am

Please…no Dunn.He strikes out 160 times
a year and hits .250.Get Textiera.(sorry
about the spelling).By-the-way, another
right handed pitcher wouldn’t hurt either.

Posted By: czar on July 14th, 2007at 10:29 am

I’m not a huge fan of Dunn myself, as you can see. I agree with you, in that I’d like the idea of Teixeira, and slide Youkilis back to third base. I don’t know how cost prohibitive he’d be.

And yes, I also would like another starter. Especially that JT is approaching a career high for IP, and Schilling’s shoulder should be an issue. I don’t think we’re breaking down doors looking for an ace, but I wouldn’t be adverse to picking up someone like a Javier Vazquez or a Jason Jennings.

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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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