We’re talking K rate, P/PA, and Wily Mo!
July 2nd, 2007 by czar

With regard to WMP, it’s been shown time and time again that as outs go, the average strikeout is better for the team than the average non-strikeout. It is just barely, and so it’s probably not even worth thinking of either as “better” or “worse.”

Yup, as far as outs go, I agree with you– you reach that tipping point in the minors– and yes, the difference is essentially negligible to the point it’s rendered statistically insignificant.

HOWEVER, my point is that a very high strikeout rate (such as WMP’s is currently) isn’t “good” in the sense that it shows both a lack of plate discipline as well as pitch recognition. I’m not sure what (if any) the correlation between something such as OPS (or any other hitting metric) and strikeouts is, but I presume there is a level or plateau where if someone has a lot number of P/PA (indicating that overall plate discipline is weak) and still strikes out more than X times per Y AB that a rather significant decline occurs. This should be true because both the low P/PA and high K% number indicate that the player is seeing a great deal of strikes– and noting the nature of pitchers in the major leagues, it’s highly unlikely that these are your standard “over-the-plate” strikes, but likely more indicitive of your “flail at the curveball six inches off the plate” strikes.

K’s aren’t inherently a bad thing, but when you are racking them up at the rate WMP has (admittedly, in sparse playing time), it can’t really be spun as a positive in any light. Which is why I’m hesitant to assume with regular at bats he’ll put up last year’s numbers.

Posted in Message Board Ramblings


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  • Traversing the land that is known as Red Sox Nation, The Czar Who Wears Red Sox is an attempt at compiling a repertoire of my ever-so-sexy forum posts (when I'm too lazy to write my own damn entry) and other random baseball thoughts that strike. For those whose posts serve as the inspiration of my epiphanies and rants, do not be angry, but merely, be honored that you have achieved such status. Names will never be revealed. Feedback appreciated, as this is a work in progress.

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